1.12.06

Russian spy poison plot thickens

LONDON: The bizarre Russian spy poison plot thickened with an autopsy on Alexander Litvinenko's poison-wracked body on Friday, confirmation that at least two British Airways planes had been contaminated by the deadly isotope Polonium 210 and the British government telling parliament that 12 of 24 London locations showed traces of radioactivity.

Even as another Russian poison mystery emerged with the family of former prime minister Yegor Gaidar alleging he too had been poisoned while attending a conference in Ireland last week, the post mortem on Litvinenko's body set out to establish the sequence and chronology of events that ended in his mysterious death in London.

The widening investigation into the former KGB colonel's death has already seen British Airways embark on the difficult process of contacting at least 33,000 passengers and 3,000 staff because they flew on planes thought to be contaminated. Amid raging speculation about the radioactive trail left by Litvinenko's alleged assassins, experts suggested that the polonium-210 traces found at various London locations could have leaked from a container.

Alternatively, they say, the highly-toxic alpha-emitting radioactive poison could have been present in people's bodily fluids. But even as the public health scare reached bizarre and unsustainable levels and the British home secretary made a statement in Parliament confirming that half of the 24 crime-scene locations in London were radioactive, Litvinenko's alleged killers were said to have most likely dropped the polonium on the floor of a leading London hotel.

According to reports in the British press, Scotland Yard is focusing on "rogue elements" in the Russian state and tentatively ruling out involvement by the Kremlin and President Putin. Police are said to be interested in the movements of five or more Russian men who are alleged to have arrived in London from Moscow to watch a football match.

Friday's post mortem comes exactly 24 hours after the inquest into Litvinenko's death opened and was adjourned at a London court with the coroner darkly confirming that the level of polonium-210 in his system showed it had come from a source "other than a natural one".

Litvinenko's friend Alex Goldfarb, also a Russian dissident and London-based exile, told the inquest that the flights being investigated by BA and by police "reinforces the theory that the origin of this material (Polonium 210) that killed Alexander was in Moscow".

Meanwhile, it has emerged that Britain's culture secretary Tessa Jowell and the head of London's 2012 Olympics bid, Lord Sebastian Coe travelled on one of the radiation-contaminated aircraft in the course of their official work.

Scotland Yard's tentative all-clear for Putin comes after more than a week of hysterical speculation over Moscow's dark and deadly deeds.

28.11.06

Why America Will Fail in Iraq

The future of Iraq may depend more on the policies of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr than those of U.S. President George W. Bush. The young firebrand’s views remain clouded in mystery, in part because he and his loyalists usually refuse to speak to the Western media. In a rare interview, his spokesman, Baha al-Araji, sounds off on Iraq’s troubled past, present, and future.

FOREIGN POLICY: Was Iraq better off under Saddam Hussein than it is today?

Baha Al-Araji: The Iraqi people knew terrible oppression and prejudice from the dictator Saddam Hussein, and the Iraqi people once thought that the American project would end that. But because the American commanders lack any awareness of the nature of the Iraqi people, their presence has actually increased the level of oppression.

Saddam Hussein killed my father and my elder brother and jailed one of my brothers and my mother for a long time. Some of my family escaped Iraq and lived in exile, while others remained in the country. Now we are able to see, unfortunately, that the situation during Saddam’s reign was better than today because then, the oppression was targeted and predictable. Today, danger and oppression overwhelm all Iraqi people without exception.

FP: Why are the Americans failing in Iraq?

BAA: The situation in Iraq differs from that in the United States. There is bureaucratic competition for power [in the United States]. The Department of Defense took control for a certain period, and then the State Department did. And this kind of alternating power and influence is good. But that is the United States. The same is not true in Iraq. Thus, the American project in Iraq will fail.

Sometimes, the Iraqi government reaches a good agreement with the political advisor of the U.S. embassy here in Baghdad. But, then, suddenly, in the night, some military commander will [attack] a certain local community. And so negates the accord that was reached between the Iraqi government and the U.S. embassy’s political advisor.

The Americans should look at the Iraqis as Iraqis, not [as] Americans in training.

FP: Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wants to disband the militias or find some way to incorporate them into the government. What does this mean for Sadr’s movement and the Mahdi Army?

BAA: I personally disagree with [that]. Whether or not these militias undermine the sovereignty of the Iraqi government is an open question. This question was provoked by the Maliki government. [They] raised it for purely political reasons in an effort to provoke a clash between the Sadr movement and the current government.

The emergence of militias in Iraq is a natural response to the situation here. There is a principle which says that for every action, there is a reaction. So, when there are occupation forces on the ground, there should naturally be a resistance to that occupation. We choose peaceful and diplomatic resistance, so the government and the coalition forces should not exaggerate our activities. Because those of us who are affiliated with the Sadr movement are sensitive, we don’t like to provoke this contentious question.

Do you know that 60 percent of the Mahdi Army already serves in government programs and installations? One of our biggest challenges with this issue is getting the Americans to understand it. The problem is that the U.S. leaders in Iraq, even though they are here, still think in an American way. But Iraq totally differs in its nature, its economy, and its culture from the United States.

FP: Many people in the American government blame the Mahdi Army for some of the insecurity. How do you respond to these critics?

BAA: There are many terrorists who can acquire and get this green badge [pointing to his Green Zone credential]. Terrorists can easily gain access to the Green Zone. And they enter with weapons. This highly protected area is already penetrated. Some of these activities have been disclosed by the Iraqi government and the Americans as the actions of the Mahdi Army. But these actions are actually not linked to [us], because our army is ideological.

FP: In the elections in December 2005, the Sadr movement was part of the United Iraqi Alliance. But now you’re saying that you’re anti-government. What are the relations like between the parties in the UIA?

BAA: Because I am affiliated with the Sadr movement, I received 40,000 votes. If I had run as an individual candidate, I would only have received 3,000 votes.... But 70 percent of these attacks, and this is my personal viewpoint, derive from disputes between the leadership of the political parties, whether they are in the council of representatives or the government. This is unacceptable.

FP: What should be the role of Iraq’s neighbors?

BAA: We have problems, unfortunately, with all of Iraq’s neighbors. Some are historical problems. Some are ethnic problems … The Shiites are the majority in Iraq. But, in the Islamic world, they are the minority. And our neighbors, the Arab countries that border us, are 100 percent Sunni. So they fear the situation in Iraq. To be sure, some of the problems we face today in Iraq are of our own making. But the biggest challenges derive from Iraq’s neighbors. Our mistake is that we didn’t go to them in the beginning and tell them about the nature of Shiites in Iraq, that we are peaceful. But the real problem—the enduring challenge—is that Iraq’s neighbors won’t tolerate a Shiite-governed Iraq. They think that there is major collaboration between Iraqi Shia and Iran, but we will control this. It is a very big mistake to think that our community works at the behest of Iranian allies and friends.

I don’t think Iran likes Iraq. Iran is the beneficiary of this current situation. Iran’s enemy is the United States, so Iran does everything in its power to fuel instability in the new Iraq so that Iran can remain strong and keep the United States distracted. The reason nobody is doing anything about Iran’s nuclear program is that they are all too busy trying to salvage Iraq.

We also have a small problem with Syria. Saddam’s regime was affiliated with the same school and political party that rules Syria. In Syria, there are many in the local Baath Party leadership who think that the situation in Iraq is a big loss for the Baath Party. Though the Syrian Baathist ideology differs from Saddam’s, there is still a desire [there] to see him reinstated. And this sense of party solidarity has led them to incite instability in Iraq in order to ensure that the occupiers—and the new government they support—fail.

FP: Do you think Kurdistan will split off from Iraq? Will the south also secede?

BAA: Of course other regions want to secede. Would you want to be part of this mess by choice? If you believed that you could build a prosperous life and leave the forces of violence to fight their own petty wars of attrition on the streets of Baghdad, you would do it. These threats of secession say nothing of Iraqi unity or fragmentation. People just want a normal life.

This interview is excerpted from an upcoming volume of the Oxford International Review.

Bush Blames Al Qaeda for Rising Iraq Violence

Published: November 28, 2006

No DUH-bya, its the unwanted occupation and take over of their country by american troops

TALLINN, Estonia, Nov. 28 — President Bush today blamed al Qaeda for the rising wave of sectarian violence in Iraq, and refused to label the recent surge in killings there a civil war.

"There's a lot of sectarian violence taking place, fomented in my opinion because of the attacks by al Qaeda causing people to seek reprisal," Mr. Bush said. Referring to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the al Qaeda leader in Iraq who was killed by American forces over the summer, he added, "The plan of Mr. Zarqawi was to foment sectarian violence."

The remarks, at a press conference here with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia, were Mr. Bush's first on the situation in Iraq since a series of bombings last Thursday killed more than 200 people in a Shiite district of Baghdad.

Mr. Bush also had harsh words for Syria and Iran, and reiterated his stance that he does not intend to negotiate directly with those nations to enlist their help in ending the violence in Iraq. He said he would leave such talks to the government of Iraq, "a sovereign nation which is conducting is own foreign policy."

Last week's bombings in Baghdad constituted the deadliest single attack since the American invasion. The following day, Shiite militiamen staged a vengeful reprisal, attacking Sunni mosques in Baghdad and in the nearby city of Baquba. The growing cycle of violence have prompted warnings from world leaders, including Jordan's King Abdullah and Kofi Annan, the United Nations Secretary General, that the region is at the brink of civil war.

But Mr. Bush, who heads to Jordan on Wednesday for two days of meetings with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq, dismissed a question about whether a civil war has indeed erupted. "There's all kinds of speculation," he said, adding, "No question about it, it's tough."

As the tensions in Iraq have escalated, so have the tensions between the Bush and Maliki governments. The president said today that he would be asking Mr. Maliki to lay out a strategy for controlling the violence. "I will ask him what is required, and what is your strategy," Mr. Bush said.

Mr. Bush arrived here in Tallinn late Monday night, becoming the first sitting United States president to visit Estonia, a tiny Baltic nation sandwiched between Russia and the Baltic Sea. The president is here on his way to Riga, Latvia, where he is to attend a N.A.T.O. summit before his Jordan trip.

Afghanistan will top the agenda at the N.A.T.O. meeting. The alliance has committed 32,000 troops to that country, but many nations have imposed restrictions on their troops that N.A.T.O. commanders say are hampering the mission. Mr. Bush is expected to press for the lifting of those restrictions.

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